Overview

Column

Overview

For riding-level estimates, hover over the map below.

Detailed information for each riding are available through the navigation bar above, organized by region.

Riding-by-riding map

Column

Provincial summary

Distribution of outcomes

Scenarios

Riding-by-riding win probabilities

Ajax

Row

Riding

Ajax

Projection

Lean PC

Chances of winning in Ajax

Party Probability of winning
PC 78.2%
Liberal 21.8%

Row

Best estimate of results in Ajax

Party Popular vote
PC 37.1%
Liberal 32.8%
NDP 21.7%
Other 4.4%
Green 4.0%

Simulation outcomes in Ajax

Simulation outcomes

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Row

Riding

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Party Popular vote
PC 52.2%
Liberal 26.9%
NDP 12.4%
Other 4.3%
Green 4.2%

Simulation outcomes in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Simulation outcomes

Brampton Centre

Row

Riding

Brampton Centre

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Brampton Centre

Party Probability of winning
PC 97.2%
NDP 2.7%
Liberal 0.2%

Row

Best estimate of results in Brampton Centre

Party Popular vote
PC 36.9%
NDP 27.3%
Liberal 22.5%
Other 8.2%
Green 5.1%

Simulation outcomes in Brampton Centre

Simulation outcomes

Brampton East

Row

Riding

Brampton East

Projection

Tossup

Chances of winning in Brampton East

Party Probability of winning
NDP 57.7%
PC 42.2%
Liberal 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Brampton East

Party Popular vote
NDP 35.5%
PC 34.6%
Liberal 23.0%
Other 4.6%
Green 2.4%

Simulation outcomes in Brampton East

Simulation outcomes

Brampton North

Row

Riding

Brampton North

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Brampton North

Party Probability of winning
PC 90.7%
Liberal 5.9%
NDP 3.4%

Row

Best estimate of results in Brampton North

Party Popular vote
PC 35.5%
Liberal 27.8%
NDP 27.0%
Green 5.7%
Other 4.1%

Simulation outcomes in Brampton North

Simulation outcomes

Brampton South

Row

Riding

Brampton South

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Brampton South

Party Probability of winning
PC 99.8%
Liberal 0.2%
NDP 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Brampton South

Party Popular vote
PC 39.3%
Liberal 24.2%
NDP 23.9%
Other 6.4%
Green 6.2%

Simulation outcomes in Brampton South

Simulation outcomes

Brampton West

Row

Riding

Brampton West

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Brampton West

Party Probability of winning
PC 98.4%
NDP 1.4%
Liberal 0.2%

Row

Best estimate of results in Brampton West

Party Popular vote
PC 39.2%
NDP 27.8%
Liberal 24.6%
Green 4.4%
Other 3.9%

Simulation outcomes in Brampton West

Simulation outcomes

Burlington

Row

Riding

Burlington

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Burlington

Party Probability of winning
PC 90.4%
Liberal 9.6%

Row

Best estimate of results in Burlington

Party Popular vote
PC 37.8%
Liberal 30.7%
NDP 19.7%
Green 7.1%
Other 4.7%

Simulation outcomes in Burlington

Simulation outcomes

Durham

Row

Riding

Durham

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Durham

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Durham

Party Popular vote
PC 46.4%
NDP 23.1%
Liberal 22.3%
Green 6.5%
Other 1.7%

Simulation outcomes in Durham

Simulation outcomes

Flamborough—Glanbrook

Row

Riding

Flamborough—Glanbrook

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Flamborough—Glanbrook

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%
NDP 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Flamborough—Glanbrook

Party Popular vote
PC 42.0%
NDP 24.3%
Liberal 20.0%
Green 7.3%
Other 6.4%

Simulation outcomes in Flamborough—Glanbrook

Simulation outcomes

Hamilton Centre

Row

Riding

Hamilton Centre

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Hamilton Centre

Party Probability of winning
NDP 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Hamilton Centre

Party Popular vote
NDP 50.5%
PC 16.6%
Liberal 15.4%
Green 10.3%
Other 7.2%

Simulation outcomes in Hamilton Centre

Simulation outcomes

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

Row

Riding

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

Projection

Likely NDP

Chances of winning in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

Party Probability of winning
NDP 94.6%
PC 5.4%

Row

Best estimate of results in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

Party Popular vote
NDP 37.6%
PC 28.8%
Liberal 16.2%
Other 10.2%
Green 7.2%

Simulation outcomes in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

Simulation outcomes

Hamilton Mountain

Row

Riding

Hamilton Mountain

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Hamilton Mountain

Party Probability of winning
NDP 97.4%
PC 2.6%

Row

Best estimate of results in Hamilton Mountain

Party Popular vote
NDP 41.6%
PC 30.0%
Liberal 12.9%
Green 9.1%
Other 6.4%

Simulation outcomes in Hamilton Mountain

Simulation outcomes

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

Row

Riding

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

Projection

Tossup

Chances of winning in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

Party Probability of winning
NDP 52.5%
PC 39.8%
Liberal 7.7%

Row

Best estimate of results in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

Party Popular vote
NDP 31.3%
PC 30.6%
Liberal 26.1%
Green 6.9%
Other 5.0%

Simulation outcomes in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

Simulation outcomes

King—Vaughan

Row

Riding

King—Vaughan

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in King—Vaughan

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%
Liberal 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in King—Vaughan

Party Popular vote
PC 52.2%
Liberal 28.8%
NDP 10.5%
Green 5.3%
Other 3.2%

Simulation outcomes in King—Vaughan

Simulation outcomes

Markham—Stouffville

Row

Riding

Markham—Stouffville

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Markham—Stouffville

Party Probability of winning
PC 97.5%
Liberal 2.5%

Row

Best estimate of results in Markham—Stouffville

Party Popular vote
PC 44.2%
Liberal 32.0%
NDP 13.9%
Green 6.2%
Other 3.7%

Simulation outcomes in Markham—Stouffville

Simulation outcomes

Markham—Thornhill

Row

Riding

Markham—Thornhill

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Markham—Thornhill

Party Probability of winning
PC 99.6%
Liberal 0.4%

Row

Best estimate of results in Markham—Thornhill

Party Popular vote
PC 47.2%
Liberal 30.5%
NDP 14.7%
Other 4.0%
Green 3.6%

Simulation outcomes in Markham—Thornhill

Simulation outcomes

Markham—Unionville

Row

Riding

Markham—Unionville

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Markham—Unionville

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Markham—Unionville

Party Popular vote
PC 59.5%
Liberal 23.1%
NDP 11.7%
Green 3.4%
Other 2.3%

Simulation outcomes in Markham—Unionville

Simulation outcomes

Milton

Row

Riding

Milton

Projection

Tossup

Chances of winning in Milton

Party Probability of winning
PC 61.0%
Liberal 39.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Milton

Party Popular vote
PC 37.9%
Liberal 36.3%
NDP 14.9%
Green 7.7%
Other 3.1%

Simulation outcomes in Milton

Simulation outcomes

Mississauga Centre

Row

Riding

Mississauga Centre

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Mississauga Centre

Party Probability of winning
PC 88.3%
Liberal 11.7%

Row

Best estimate of results in Mississauga Centre

Party Popular vote
PC 37.4%
Liberal 31.0%
NDP 18.6%
Other 9.0%
Green 4.1%

Simulation outcomes in Mississauga Centre

Simulation outcomes

Mississauga East—Cooksville

Row

Riding

Mississauga East—Cooksville

Projection

Tossup

Chances of winning in Mississauga East—Cooksville

Party Probability of winning
PC 55.0%
Liberal 45.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Mississauga East—Cooksville

Party Popular vote
PC 37.1%
Liberal 36.4%
NDP 15.1%
Other 6.1%
Green 5.3%

Simulation outcomes in Mississauga East—Cooksville

Simulation outcomes

Mississauga—Erin Mills

Row

Riding

Mississauga—Erin Mills

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Mississauga—Erin Mills

Party Probability of winning
PC 89.9%
Liberal 10.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Mississauga—Erin Mills

Party Popular vote
PC 38.6%
Liberal 31.4%
NDP 18.8%
Other 6.9%
Green 4.3%

Simulation outcomes in Mississauga—Erin Mills

Simulation outcomes

Mississauga—Lakeshore

Row

Riding

Mississauga—Lakeshore

Projection

Lean Liberal

Chances of winning in Mississauga—Lakeshore

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 72.8%
PC 27.2%

Row

Best estimate of results in Mississauga—Lakeshore

Party Popular vote
Liberal 42.0%
PC 38.0%
NDP 12.1%
Green 4.5%
Other 3.4%

Simulation outcomes in Mississauga—Lakeshore

Simulation outcomes

Mississauga—Malton

Row

Riding

Mississauga—Malton

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Mississauga—Malton

Party Probability of winning
PC 98.2%
Liberal 1.7%
NDP 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Mississauga—Malton

Party Popular vote
PC 35.8%
Liberal 25.5%
NDP 22.1%
Other 13.9%
Green 2.8%

Simulation outcomes in Mississauga—Malton

Simulation outcomes

Mississauga—Streetsville

Row

Riding

Mississauga—Streetsville

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Mississauga—Streetsville

Party Probability of winning
PC 92.2%
Liberal 7.8%

Row

Best estimate of results in Mississauga—Streetsville

Party Popular vote
PC 40.5%
Liberal 32.1%
NDP 17.7%
Other 5.4%
Green 4.4%

Simulation outcomes in Mississauga—Streetsville

Simulation outcomes

Newmarket—Aurora

Row

Riding

Newmarket—Aurora

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Newmarket—Aurora

Party Probability of winning
PC 99.6%
Liberal 0.4%

Row

Best estimate of results in Newmarket—Aurora

Party Popular vote
PC 44.3%
Liberal 28.3%
NDP 16.3%
Green 5.6%
Other 5.4%

Simulation outcomes in Newmarket—Aurora

Simulation outcomes

Niagara Centre

Row

Riding

Niagara Centre

Projection

Lean PC

Chances of winning in Niagara Centre

Party Probability of winning
PC 82.3%
NDP 17.7%

Row

Best estimate of results in Niagara Centre

Party Popular vote
PC 37.6%
NDP 32.6%
Liberal 15.9%
Other 7.6%
Green 6.3%

Simulation outcomes in Niagara Centre

Simulation outcomes

Niagara Falls

Row

Riding

Niagara Falls

Projection

Tossup

Chances of winning in Niagara Falls

Party Probability of winning
NDP 62.4%
PC 37.6%

Row

Best estimate of results in Niagara Falls

Party Popular vote
NDP 39.8%
PC 38.0%
Liberal 13.4%
Green 6.3%
Other 2.4%

Simulation outcomes in Niagara Falls

Simulation outcomes

Niagara West

Row

Riding

Niagara West

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Niagara West

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Niagara West

Party Popular vote
PC 51.9%
NDP 21.5%
Liberal 13.9%
Green 9.3%
Other 3.4%

Simulation outcomes in Niagara West

Simulation outcomes

Oakville

Row

Riding

Oakville

Projection

Lean Liberal

Chances of winning in Oakville

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 71.1%
PC 28.9%

Row

Best estimate of results in Oakville

Party Popular vote
Liberal 43.0%
PC 39.4%
NDP 11.0%
Green 5.3%
Other 1.3%

Simulation outcomes in Oakville

Simulation outcomes

Oakville North—Burlington

Row

Riding

Oakville North—Burlington

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Oakville North—Burlington

Party Probability of winning
PC 98.7%
Liberal 1.3%

Row

Best estimate of results in Oakville North—Burlington

Party Popular vote
PC 43.6%
Liberal 30.7%
NDP 16.9%
Green 5.9%
Other 2.9%

Simulation outcomes in Oakville North—Burlington

Simulation outcomes

Oshawa

Row

Riding

Oshawa

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Oshawa

Party Probability of winning
PC 93.7%
NDP 6.3%

Row

Best estimate of results in Oshawa

Party Popular vote
PC 43.2%
NDP 34.2%
Liberal 11.0%
Green 6.3%
Other 5.4%

Simulation outcomes in Oshawa

Simulation outcomes

Pickering—Uxbridge

Row

Riding

Pickering—Uxbridge

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Pickering—Uxbridge

Party Probability of winning
PC 99.6%
Liberal 0.4%

Row

Best estimate of results in Pickering—Uxbridge

Party Popular vote
PC 40.7%
Liberal 26.4%
NDP 22.7%
Green 6.5%
Other 3.8%

Simulation outcomes in Pickering—Uxbridge

Simulation outcomes

Richmond Hill

Row

Riding

Richmond Hill

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Richmond Hill

Party Probability of winning
PC 97.3%
Liberal 2.7%

Row

Best estimate of results in Richmond Hill

Party Popular vote
PC 47.4%
Liberal 34.6%
NDP 11.8%
Green 4.5%
Other 1.8%

Simulation outcomes in Richmond Hill

Simulation outcomes

St. Catharines

Row

Riding

St. Catharines

Projection

Tossup

Chances of winning in St. Catharines

Party Probability of winning
PC 55.0%
Liberal 42.1%
NDP 3.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in St. Catharines

Party Popular vote
PC 32.4%
Liberal 31.6%
NDP 25.9%
Green 6.0%
Other 4.1%

Simulation outcomes in St. Catharines

Simulation outcomes

Thornhill

Row

Riding

Thornhill

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Thornhill

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Thornhill

Party Popular vote
PC 57.6%
Liberal 18.7%
NDP 13.4%
Other 6.7%
Green 3.5%

Simulation outcomes in Thornhill

Simulation outcomes

Vaughan—Woodbridge

Row

Riding

Vaughan—Woodbridge

Projection

Lean PC

Chances of winning in Vaughan—Woodbridge

Party Probability of winning
PC 84.9%
Liberal 15.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Vaughan—Woodbridge

Party Popular vote
PC 46.0%
Liberal 39.0%
NDP 9.8%
Green 3.5%
Other 1.7%

Simulation outcomes in Vaughan—Woodbridge

Simulation outcomes

Whitby

Row

Riding

Whitby

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Whitby

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%
NDP 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Whitby

Party Popular vote
PC 46.1%
NDP 27.1%
Liberal 17.4%
Green 5.8%
Other 3.7%

Simulation outcomes in Whitby

Simulation outcomes

Barrie—Innisfil

Row

Riding

Barrie—Innisfil

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Barrie—Innisfil

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Barrie—Innisfil

Party Popular vote
PC 47.7%
NDP 20.1%
Liberal 16.0%
Green 11.6%
Other 4.5%

Simulation outcomes in Barrie—Innisfil

Simulation outcomes

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

Row

Riding

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

Party Popular vote
PC 41.3%
NDP 19.2%
Green 18.3%
Liberal 16.8%
Other 4.4%

Simulation outcomes in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

Simulation outcomes

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Row

Riding

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Party Popular vote
PC 51.0%
NDP 16.6%
Liberal 15.4%
Green 9.4%
Other 7.6%

Simulation outcomes in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Simulation outcomes

Dufferin—Caledon

Row

Riding

Dufferin—Caledon

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Dufferin—Caledon

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Dufferin—Caledon

Party Popular vote
PC 48.1%
Green 19.2%
Liberal 15.1%
NDP 13.6%
Other 4.0%

Simulation outcomes in Dufferin—Caledon

Simulation outcomes

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

Row

Riding

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

Party Popular vote
PC 54.6%
NDP 18.8%
Liberal 12.8%
Green 7.3%
Other 6.5%

Simulation outcomes in Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

Simulation outcomes

Northumberland—Peterborough South

Row

Riding

Northumberland—Peterborough South

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Northumberland—Peterborough South

Party Probability of winning
PC 98.0%
Liberal 2.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Northumberland—Peterborough South

Party Popular vote
PC 42.1%
Liberal 30.1%
NDP 16.8%
Green 7.1%
Other 3.8%

Simulation outcomes in Northumberland—Peterborough South

Simulation outcomes

Perth—Wellington

Row

Riding

Perth—Wellington

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Perth—Wellington

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Perth—Wellington

Party Popular vote
PC 49.2%
NDP 21.9%
Liberal 14.1%
Green 9.6%
Other 5.3%

Simulation outcomes in Perth—Wellington

Simulation outcomes

Peterborough—Kawartha

Row

Riding

Peterborough—Kawartha

Projection

Lean PC

Chances of winning in Peterborough—Kawartha

Party Probability of winning
PC 79.9%
Liberal 20.0%
NDP 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Peterborough—Kawartha

Party Popular vote
PC 36.6%
Liberal 32.0%
NDP 24.1%
Green 5.5%
Other 1.8%

Simulation outcomes in Peterborough—Kawartha

Simulation outcomes

Simcoe—Grey

Row

Riding

Simcoe—Grey

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Simcoe—Grey

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Simcoe—Grey

Party Popular vote
PC 53.2%
Liberal 18.4%
NDP 15.4%
Green 11.1%
Other 2.0%

Simulation outcomes in Simcoe—Grey

Simulation outcomes

Simcoe North

Row

Riding

Simcoe North

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Simcoe North

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Simcoe North

Party Popular vote
PC 45.0%
Liberal 22.7%
NDP 19.8%
Green 10.9%
Other 1.6%

Simulation outcomes in Simcoe North

Simulation outcomes

York—Simcoe

Row

Riding

York—Simcoe

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in York—Simcoe

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in York—Simcoe

Party Popular vote
PC 55.4%
Liberal 17.6%
NDP 16.7%
Green 7.9%
Other 2.4%

Simulation outcomes in York—Simcoe

Simulation outcomes

Bay of Quinte

Row

Riding

Bay of Quinte

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Bay of Quinte

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Bay of Quinte

Party Popular vote
PC 46.9%
NDP 22.9%
Liberal 19.5%
Green 5.7%
Other 4.9%

Simulation outcomes in Bay of Quinte

Simulation outcomes

Carleton

Row

Riding

Carleton

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Carleton

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Carleton

Party Popular vote
PC 47.4%
Liberal 24.0%
NDP 15.3%
Other 7.1%
Green 6.2%

Simulation outcomes in Carleton

Simulation outcomes

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

Row

Riding

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

Projection

Tossup

Chances of winning in Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 57.1%
PC 42.9%

Row

Best estimate of results in Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

Party Popular vote
Liberal 37.8%
PC 36.7%
NDP 14.4%
Other 6.6%
Green 4.4%

Simulation outcomes in Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

Simulation outcomes

Hastings—Lennox and Addington

Row

Riding

Hastings—Lennox and Addington

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Hastings—Lennox and Addington

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Hastings—Lennox and Addington

Party Popular vote
PC 49.8%
NDP 23.7%
Liberal 15.5%
Green 7.3%
Other 3.7%

Simulation outcomes in Hastings—Lennox and Addington

Simulation outcomes

Kanata—Carleton

Row

Riding

Kanata—Carleton

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Kanata—Carleton

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%
Liberal 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Kanata—Carleton

Party Popular vote
PC 38.9%
Liberal 20.5%
NDP 19.3%
Other 13.3%
Green 8.0%

Simulation outcomes in Kanata—Carleton

Simulation outcomes

Kingston and the Islands

Row

Riding

Kingston and the Islands

Projection

Likely Liberal

Chances of winning in Kingston and the Islands

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 88.5%
NDP 10.7%
PC 0.8%

Row

Best estimate of results in Kingston and the Islands

Party Popular vote
Liberal 35.1%
NDP 27.5%
PC 24.9%
Green 10.3%
Other 2.2%

Simulation outcomes in Kingston and the Islands

Simulation outcomes

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

Row

Riding

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

Party Popular vote
PC 50.7%
NDP 21.9%
Liberal 13.9%
Green 7.9%
Other 5.6%

Simulation outcomes in Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

Simulation outcomes

Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

Row

Riding

Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

Party Popular vote
PC 58.9%
Liberal 17.2%
NDP 14.0%
Green 7.8%
Other 2.1%

Simulation outcomes in Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

Simulation outcomes

Nepean

Row

Riding

Nepean

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Nepean

Party Probability of winning
PC 99.9%
Liberal 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Nepean

Party Popular vote
PC 42.8%
Liberal 24.9%
NDP 19.9%
Green 8.3%
Other 4.1%

Simulation outcomes in Nepean

Simulation outcomes

Orléans

Row

Riding

Orléans

Projection

Safe Liberal

Chances of winning in Orléans

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 99.2%
PC 0.8%

Row

Best estimate of results in Orléans

Party Popular vote
Liberal 46.8%
PC 31.7%
NDP 14.5%
Green 3.8%
Other 3.2%

Simulation outcomes in Orléans

Simulation outcomes

Ottawa Centre

Row

Riding

Ottawa Centre

Projection

Likely Liberal

Chances of winning in Ottawa Centre

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 90.6%
NDP 9.4%

Row

Best estimate of results in Ottawa Centre

Party Popular vote
Liberal 42.1%
NDP 32.5%
PC 15.5%
Green 5.7%
Other 4.2%

Simulation outcomes in Ottawa Centre

Simulation outcomes

Ottawa South

Row

Riding

Ottawa South

Projection

Safe Liberal

Chances of winning in Ottawa South

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 100.0%
PC 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Ottawa South

Party Popular vote
Liberal 48.2%
PC 26.7%
NDP 18.2%
Green 4.7%
Other 2.2%

Simulation outcomes in Ottawa South

Simulation outcomes

Ottawa—Vanier

Row

Riding

Ottawa—Vanier

Projection

Safe Liberal

Chances of winning in Ottawa—Vanier

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Ottawa—Vanier

Party Popular vote
Liberal 50.7%
NDP 19.3%
PC 19.0%
Green 6.1%
Other 4.9%

Simulation outcomes in Ottawa—Vanier

Simulation outcomes

Ottawa West—Nepean

Row

Riding

Ottawa West—Nepean

Projection

Likely Liberal

Chances of winning in Ottawa West—Nepean

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 85.9%
PC 14.0%
NDP 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Ottawa West—Nepean

Party Popular vote
Liberal 36.7%
PC 30.8%
NDP 22.4%
Green 6.1%
Other 4.1%

Simulation outcomes in Ottawa West—Nepean

Simulation outcomes

Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

Row

Riding

Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

Party Popular vote
PC 66.9%
Liberal 12.7%
NDP 11.9%
Green 4.9%
Other 3.6%

Simulation outcomes in Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

Simulation outcomes

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

Row

Riding

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

Party Popular vote
PC 60.0%
Liberal 16.2%
NDP 15.5%
Green 6.1%
Other 2.2%

Simulation outcomes in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

Simulation outcomes

Algoma—Manitoulin

Row

Riding

Algoma—Manitoulin

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Algoma—Manitoulin

Party Probability of winning
NDP 99.9%
PC 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Algoma—Manitoulin

Party Popular vote
NDP 43.3%
PC 24.7%
Other 15.1%
Liberal 11.0%
Green 6.0%

Simulation outcomes in Algoma—Manitoulin

Simulation outcomes

Kenora—Rainy River

Row

Riding

Kenora—Rainy River

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Kenora—Rainy River

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%
NDP 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Kenora—Rainy River

Party Popular vote
PC 49.1%
NDP 27.7%
Liberal 14.3%
Green 6.0%
Other 2.8%

Simulation outcomes in Kenora—Rainy River

Simulation outcomes

Nickel Belt

Row

Riding

Nickel Belt

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Nickel Belt

Party Probability of winning
NDP 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Nickel Belt

Party Popular vote
NDP 50.1%
PC 23.7%
Liberal 12.6%
Other 8.0%
Green 5.7%

Simulation outcomes in Nickel Belt

Simulation outcomes

Nipissing

Row

Riding

Nipissing

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Nipissing

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Nipissing

Party Popular vote
PC 50.3%
NDP 27.3%
Liberal 10.7%
Other 6.8%
Green 4.8%

Simulation outcomes in Nipissing

Simulation outcomes

Parry Sound—Muskoka

Row

Riding

Parry Sound—Muskoka

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Parry Sound—Muskoka

Party Probability of winning
PC 88.4%
Green 11.6%

Row

Best estimate of results in Parry Sound—Muskoka

Party Popular vote
PC 42.8%
Green 36.1%
NDP 17.4%
Other 3.7%
Liberal 0.0%

Simulation outcomes in Parry Sound—Muskoka

Simulation outcomes

Sault Ste. Marie

Row

Riding

Sault Ste. Marie

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Sault Ste. Marie

Party Probability of winning
PC 98.8%
NDP 1.2%

Row

Best estimate of results in Sault Ste. Marie

Party Popular vote
PC 41.2%
NDP 29.3%
Liberal 13.1%
Other 11.0%
Green 5.4%

Simulation outcomes in Sault Ste. Marie

Simulation outcomes

Sudbury

Row

Riding

Sudbury

Projection

Lean NDP

Chances of winning in Sudbury

Party Probability of winning
NDP 79.9%
Liberal 20.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Sudbury

Party Popular vote
NDP 34.8%
Liberal 29.5%
PC 22.9%
Green 6.9%
Other 5.8%

Simulation outcomes in Sudbury

Simulation outcomes

Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Row

Riding

Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Projection

Safe Liberal

Chances of winning in Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 99.9%
NDP 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Party Popular vote
Liberal 44.7%
NDP 24.8%
PC 21.6%
Other 4.6%
Green 4.2%

Simulation outcomes in Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Simulation outcomes

Thunder Bay—Superior North

Row

Riding

Thunder Bay—Superior North

Projection

Safe Liberal

Chances of winning in Thunder Bay—Superior North

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 100.0%
NDP 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Thunder Bay—Superior North

Party Popular vote
Liberal 48.6%
NDP 25.0%
PC 16.4%
Other 5.6%
Green 4.3%

Simulation outcomes in Thunder Bay—Superior North

Simulation outcomes

Timiskaming—Cochrane

Row

Riding

Timiskaming—Cochrane

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Timiskaming—Cochrane

Party Probability of winning
NDP 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Timiskaming—Cochrane

Party Popular vote
NDP 46.2%
PC 23.2%
Other 13.5%
Liberal 12.5%
Green 4.6%

Simulation outcomes in Timiskaming—Cochrane

Simulation outcomes

Timmins

Row

Riding

Timmins

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Timmins

Party Probability of winning
NDP 98.2%
PC 1.8%

Row

Best estimate of results in Timmins

Party Popular vote
NDP 51.7%
PC 36.5%
Other 8.1%
Green 3.6%
Liberal 0.0%

Simulation outcomes in Timmins

Simulation outcomes

Kiiwetinoong

Row

Riding

Kiiwetinoong

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Kiiwetinoong

Party Probability of winning
NDP 96.4%
PC 3.5%
Liberal 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Kiiwetinoong

Party Popular vote
NDP 37.1%
PC 27.6%
Liberal 20.6%
Green 10.7%
Other 4.0%

Simulation outcomes in Kiiwetinoong

Simulation outcomes

Mushkegowuk—James Bay

Row

Riding

Mushkegowuk—James Bay

Projection

Likely NDP

Chances of winning in Mushkegowuk—James Bay

Party Probability of winning
NDP 92.7%
PC 7.3%

Row

Best estimate of results in Mushkegowuk—James Bay

Party Popular vote
NDP 39.5%
PC 31.2%
Liberal 19.9%
Other 6.3%
Green 3.1%

Simulation outcomes in Mushkegowuk—James Bay

Simulation outcomes

Brantford—Brant

Row

Riding

Brantford—Brant

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Brantford—Brant

Party Probability of winning
PC 98.8%
NDP 1.2%

Row

Best estimate of results in Brantford—Brant

Party Popular vote
PC 41.7%
NDP 29.8%
Liberal 12.7%
Green 7.9%
Other 7.8%

Simulation outcomes in Brantford—Brant

Simulation outcomes

Cambridge

Row

Riding

Cambridge

Projection

Lean PC

Chances of winning in Cambridge

Party Probability of winning
PC 74.8%
Liberal 24.8%
NDP 0.4%

Row

Best estimate of results in Cambridge

Party Popular vote
PC 31.5%
Liberal 28.3%
NDP 21.8%
Green 9.6%
Other 8.8%

Simulation outcomes in Cambridge

Simulation outcomes

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Row

Riding

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Party Popular vote
PC 60.1%
NDP 30.4%
Green 7.0%
Other 2.5%
Liberal 0.0%

Simulation outcomes in Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Simulation outcomes

Elgin—Middlesex—London

Row

Riding

Elgin—Middlesex—London

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Elgin—Middlesex—London

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Elgin—Middlesex—London

Party Popular vote
PC 56.0%
NDP 23.8%
Liberal 9.9%
Green 6.6%
Other 3.7%

Simulation outcomes in Elgin—Middlesex—London

Simulation outcomes

Essex

Row

Riding

Essex

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Essex

Party Probability of winning
PC 91.0%
NDP 9.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Essex

Party Popular vote
PC 45.5%
NDP 37.2%
Liberal 7.9%
Green 6.3%
Other 3.0%

Simulation outcomes in Essex

Simulation outcomes

Guelph

Row

Riding

Guelph

Projection

Safe Green

Chances of winning in Guelph

Party Probability of winning
Green 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Guelph

Party Popular vote
Green 57.8%
PC 16.7%
NDP 12.1%
Liberal 10.3%
Other 3.1%

Simulation outcomes in Guelph

Simulation outcomes

Haldimand—Norfolk

Row

Riding

Haldimand—Norfolk

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Haldimand—Norfolk

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Haldimand—Norfolk

Party Popular vote
PC 55.1%
NDP 19.1%
Liberal 11.9%
Other 7.1%
Green 6.8%

Simulation outcomes in Haldimand—Norfolk

Simulation outcomes

Huron—Bruce

Row

Riding

Huron—Bruce

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Huron—Bruce

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Huron—Bruce

Party Popular vote
PC 51.5%
NDP 21.0%
Liberal 18.4%
Green 5.7%
Other 3.5%

Simulation outcomes in Huron—Bruce

Simulation outcomes

Kitchener Centre

Row

Riding

Kitchener Centre

Projection

Lean NDP

Chances of winning in Kitchener Centre

Party Probability of winning
NDP 72.9%
Liberal 14.8%
PC 12.3%

Row

Best estimate of results in Kitchener Centre

Party Popular vote
NDP 30.8%
PC 26.7%
Liberal 25.9%
Green 11.2%
Other 5.4%

Simulation outcomes in Kitchener Centre

Simulation outcomes

Kitchener—Conestoga

Row

Riding

Kitchener—Conestoga

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Kitchener—Conestoga

Party Probability of winning
PC 96.9%
NDP 3.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Kitchener—Conestoga

Party Popular vote
PC 34.5%
NDP 26.0%
Liberal 17.6%
Other 11.4%
Green 10.5%

Simulation outcomes in Kitchener—Conestoga

Simulation outcomes

Kitchener South—Hespeler

Row

Riding

Kitchener South—Hespeler

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Kitchener South—Hespeler

Party Probability of winning
PC 99.0%
NDP 1.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Kitchener South—Hespeler

Party Popular vote
PC 37.6%
NDP 26.4%
Liberal 19.3%
Green 12.3%
Other 4.4%

Simulation outcomes in Kitchener South—Hespeler

Simulation outcomes

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

Row

Riding

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

Party Popular vote
PC 56.0%
NDP 24.7%
Liberal 8.5%
Green 5.6%
Other 5.1%

Simulation outcomes in Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

Simulation outcomes

London—Fanshawe

Row

Riding

London—Fanshawe

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in London—Fanshawe

Party Probability of winning
NDP 97.4%
PC 2.6%

Row

Best estimate of results in London—Fanshawe

Party Popular vote
NDP 43.3%
PC 31.7%
Liberal 11.9%
Green 8.1%
Other 4.9%

Simulation outcomes in London—Fanshawe

Simulation outcomes

London North Centre

Row

Riding

London North Centre

Projection

Lean NDP

Chances of winning in London North Centre

Party Probability of winning
NDP 78.3%
PC 21.6%
Liberal 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in London North Centre

Party Popular vote
NDP 35.6%
PC 31.5%
Liberal 21.5%
Green 7.9%
Other 3.5%

Simulation outcomes in London North Centre

Simulation outcomes

London West

Row

Riding

London West

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in London West

Party Probability of winning
NDP 98.0%
PC 2.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in London West

Party Popular vote
NDP 42.8%
PC 30.7%
Liberal 14.0%
Green 6.7%
Other 5.8%

Simulation outcomes in London West

Simulation outcomes

Oxford

Row

Riding

Oxford

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Oxford

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Oxford

Party Popular vote
PC 54.6%
NDP 22.0%
Liberal 9.1%
Green 7.2%
Other 7.1%

Simulation outcomes in Oxford

Simulation outcomes

Sarnia—Lambton

Row

Riding

Sarnia—Lambton

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Sarnia—Lambton

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Sarnia—Lambton

Party Popular vote
PC 54.1%
NDP 28.2%
Green 6.3%
Liberal 6.1%
Other 5.2%

Simulation outcomes in Sarnia—Lambton

Simulation outcomes

Waterloo

Row

Riding

Waterloo

Projection

Likely NDP

Chances of winning in Waterloo

Party Probability of winning
NDP 85.0%
PC 15.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Waterloo

Party Popular vote
NDP 38.7%
PC 32.8%
Liberal 17.0%
Green 8.5%
Other 3.0%

Simulation outcomes in Waterloo

Simulation outcomes

Wellington—Halton Hills

Row

Riding

Wellington—Halton Hills

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Wellington—Halton Hills

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Wellington—Halton Hills

Party Popular vote
PC 51.4%
NDP 16.9%
Liberal 16.3%
Green 13.9%
Other 1.4%

Simulation outcomes in Wellington—Halton Hills

Simulation outcomes

Windsor—Tecumseh

Row

Riding

Windsor—Tecumseh

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Windsor—Tecumseh

Party Probability of winning
NDP 99.6%
PC 0.4%

Row

Best estimate of results in Windsor—Tecumseh

Party Popular vote
NDP 45.6%
PC 28.9%
Liberal 11.6%
Green 8.0%
Other 5.9%

Simulation outcomes in Windsor—Tecumseh

Simulation outcomes

Windsor West

Row

Riding

Windsor West

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Windsor West

Party Probability of winning
NDP 96.2%
PC 3.8%
Liberal 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Windsor West

Party Popular vote
NDP 40.0%
PC 29.8%
Liberal 20.6%
Green 6.3%
Other 3.2%

Simulation outcomes in Windsor West

Simulation outcomes

Beaches—East York

Row

Riding

Beaches—East York

Projection

Tossup

Chances of winning in Beaches—East York

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 53.2%
NDP 46.8%

Row

Best estimate of results in Beaches—East York

Party Popular vote
Liberal 35.1%
NDP 34.4%
PC 18.0%
Green 7.0%
Other 5.6%

Simulation outcomes in Beaches—East York

Simulation outcomes

Davenport

Row

Riding

Davenport

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Davenport

Party Probability of winning
NDP 99.7%
Liberal 0.3%

Row

Best estimate of results in Davenport

Party Popular vote
NDP 46.4%
Liberal 26.2%
PC 16.9%
Green 6.3%
Other 4.2%

Simulation outcomes in Davenport

Simulation outcomes

Don Valley East

Row

Riding

Don Valley East

Projection

Safe Liberal

Chances of winning in Don Valley East

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 99.0%
PC 1.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Don Valley East

Party Popular vote
Liberal 44.3%
PC 30.6%
NDP 18.6%
Green 3.9%
Other 2.6%

Simulation outcomes in Don Valley East

Simulation outcomes

Don Valley North

Row

Riding

Don Valley North

Projection

Lean PC

Chances of winning in Don Valley North

Party Probability of winning
PC 67.9%
Liberal 32.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Don Valley North

Party Popular vote
PC 40.9%
Liberal 38.0%
NDP 14.1%
Green 4.0%
Other 3.1%

Simulation outcomes in Don Valley North

Simulation outcomes

Don Valley West

Row

Riding

Don Valley West

Projection

Safe Liberal

Chances of winning in Don Valley West

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 96.7%
PC 3.3%

Row

Best estimate of results in Don Valley West

Party Popular vote
Liberal 46.4%
PC 34.5%
NDP 12.4%
Green 4.2%
Other 2.5%

Simulation outcomes in Don Valley West

Simulation outcomes

Eglinton—Lawrence

Row

Riding

Eglinton—Lawrence

Projection

Likely Liberal

Chances of winning in Eglinton—Lawrence

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 93.0%
PC 7.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Eglinton—Lawrence

Party Popular vote
Liberal 46.2%
PC 36.5%
NDP 12.1%
Green 3.7%
Other 1.6%

Simulation outcomes in Eglinton—Lawrence

Simulation outcomes

Etobicoke Centre

Row

Riding

Etobicoke Centre

Projection

Lean Liberal

Chances of winning in Etobicoke Centre

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 66.8%
PC 33.2%

Row

Best estimate of results in Etobicoke Centre

Party Popular vote
Liberal 41.4%
PC 38.5%
NDP 12.0%
Other 4.6%
Green 3.5%

Simulation outcomes in Etobicoke Centre

Simulation outcomes

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Row

Riding

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Party Probability of winning
PC 85.3%
Liberal 14.7%
NDP 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Party Popular vote
PC 37.0%
Liberal 31.3%
NDP 23.4%
Green 5.9%
Other 2.4%

Simulation outcomes in Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Simulation outcomes

Etobicoke North

Row

Riding

Etobicoke North

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Etobicoke North

Party Probability of winning
PC 100.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Etobicoke North

Party Popular vote
PC 50.7%
Liberal 23.5%
NDP 18.1%
Green 4.6%
Other 3.1%

Simulation outcomes in Etobicoke North

Simulation outcomes

Humber River—Black Creek

Row

Riding

Humber River—Black Creek

Projection

Likely Liberal

Chances of winning in Humber River—Black Creek

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 88.0%
PC 8.1%
NDP 4.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Humber River—Black Creek

Party Popular vote
Liberal 35.4%
PC 28.8%
NDP 26.1%
Other 7.3%
Green 2.5%

Simulation outcomes in Humber River—Black Creek

Simulation outcomes

Parkdale—High Park

Row

Riding

Parkdale—High Park

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Parkdale—High Park

Party Probability of winning
NDP 99.9%
Liberal 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Parkdale—High Park

Party Popular vote
NDP 46.0%
Liberal 24.0%
PC 19.0%
Green 8.3%
Other 2.7%

Simulation outcomes in Parkdale—High Park

Simulation outcomes

Scarborough—Agincourt

Row

Riding

Scarborough—Agincourt

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Scarborough—Agincourt

Party Probability of winning
PC 96.3%
Liberal 3.7%

Row

Best estimate of results in Scarborough—Agincourt

Party Popular vote
PC 45.9%
Liberal 34.4%
NDP 11.7%
Other 5.4%
Green 2.6%

Simulation outcomes in Scarborough—Agincourt

Simulation outcomes

Scarborough Centre

Row

Riding

Scarborough Centre

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Scarborough Centre

Party Probability of winning
PC 94.0%
Liberal 5.8%
NDP 0.2%

Row

Best estimate of results in Scarborough Centre

Party Popular vote
PC 36.0%
Liberal 27.7%
NDP 23.0%
Other 9.7%
Green 3.7%

Simulation outcomes in Scarborough Centre

Simulation outcomes

Scarborough—Guildwood

Row

Riding

Scarborough—Guildwood

Projection

Safe Liberal

Chances of winning in Scarborough—Guildwood

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 96.5%
PC 3.5%

Row

Best estimate of results in Scarborough—Guildwood

Party Popular vote
Liberal 39.8%
PC 29.7%
NDP 18.2%
Other 8.6%
Green 3.7%

Simulation outcomes in Scarborough—Guildwood

Simulation outcomes

Scarborough North

Row

Riding

Scarborough North

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Scarborough North

Party Probability of winning
PC 99.9%
Liberal 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in Scarborough North

Party Popular vote
PC 49.2%
Liberal 28.4%
NDP 17.3%
Green 2.6%
Other 2.5%

Simulation outcomes in Scarborough North

Simulation outcomes

Scarborough—Rouge Park

Row

Riding

Scarborough—Rouge Park

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in Scarborough—Rouge Park

Party Probability of winning
PC 97.0%
Liberal 2.1%
NDP 0.8%

Row

Best estimate of results in Scarborough—Rouge Park

Party Popular vote
PC 37.8%
Liberal 27.4%
NDP 26.1%
Other 4.7%
Green 4.0%

Simulation outcomes in Scarborough—Rouge Park

Simulation outcomes

Scarborough Southwest

Row

Riding

Scarborough Southwest

Projection

Lean NDP

Chances of winning in Scarborough Southwest

Party Probability of winning
NDP 67.0%
PC 30.0%
Liberal 2.9%

Row

Best estimate of results in Scarborough Southwest

Party Popular vote
NDP 34.0%
PC 31.6%
Liberal 25.6%
Green 4.6%
Other 4.1%

Simulation outcomes in Scarborough Southwest

Simulation outcomes

Spadina—Fort York

Row

Riding

Spadina—Fort York

Projection

Lean NDP

Chances of winning in Spadina—Fort York

Party Probability of winning
NDP 76.9%
Liberal 23.1%
PC 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Spadina—Fort York

Party Popular vote
NDP 36.6%
Liberal 31.8%
PC 21.9%
Green 6.2%
Other 3.6%

Simulation outcomes in Spadina—Fort York

Simulation outcomes

Toronto Centre

Row

Riding

Toronto Centre

Projection

Lean NDP

Chances of winning in Toronto Centre

Party Probability of winning
NDP 66.6%
Liberal 33.4%

Row

Best estimate of results in Toronto Centre

Party Popular vote
NDP 39.2%
Liberal 36.1%
PC 14.1%
Other 5.4%
Green 5.2%

Simulation outcomes in Toronto Centre

Simulation outcomes

Toronto—Danforth

Row

Riding

Toronto—Danforth

Projection

Safe NDP

Chances of winning in Toronto—Danforth

Party Probability of winning
NDP 100.0%
Liberal 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Toronto—Danforth

Party Popular vote
NDP 50.5%
Liberal 20.2%
PC 17.0%
Green 8.0%
Other 4.3%

Simulation outcomes in Toronto—Danforth

Simulation outcomes

Toronto—St. Paul’s

Row

Riding

Toronto—St. Paul’s

Projection

Safe Liberal

Chances of winning in Toronto—St. Paul’s

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 99.7%
NDP 0.3%
PC 0.0%

Row

Best estimate of results in Toronto—St. Paul’s

Party Popular vote
Liberal 42.1%
NDP 25.0%
PC 24.8%
Green 5.1%
Other 3.0%

Simulation outcomes in Toronto—St. Paul’s

Simulation outcomes

University—Rosedale

Row

Riding

University—Rosedale

Projection

Likely NDP

Chances of winning in University—Rosedale

Party Probability of winning
NDP 85.5%
Liberal 14.5%

Row

Best estimate of results in University—Rosedale

Party Popular vote
NDP 36.0%
Liberal 29.2%
PC 20.9%
Green 9.0%
Other 5.0%

Simulation outcomes in University—Rosedale

Simulation outcomes

Willowdale

Row

Riding

Willowdale

Projection

Likely PC

Chances of winning in Willowdale

Party Probability of winning
PC 89.2%
Liberal 10.8%

Row

Best estimate of results in Willowdale

Party Popular vote
PC 40.8%
Liberal 33.3%
NDP 17.8%
Other 4.4%
Green 3.6%

Simulation outcomes in Willowdale

Simulation outcomes

York Centre

Row

Riding

York Centre

Projection

Safe PC

Chances of winning in York Centre

Party Probability of winning
PC 99.9%
Liberal 0.1%

Row

Best estimate of results in York Centre

Party Popular vote
PC 46.7%
Liberal 26.7%
NDP 16.0%
Other 7.0%
Green 3.6%

Simulation outcomes in York Centre

Simulation outcomes

York South—Weston

Row

Riding

York South—Weston

Projection

Lean Liberal

Chances of winning in York South—Weston

Party Probability of winning
Liberal 76.8%
PC 22.0%
NDP 1.2%

Row

Best estimate of results in York South—Weston

Party Popular vote
Liberal 36.3%
PC 32.1%
NDP 25.8%
Green 4.2%
Other 1.7%

Simulation outcomes in York South—Weston

Simulation outcomes