For riding-level estimates, hover over the map below.
Detailed information for each riding are available through the navigation bar above, organized by region.



Ajax
Lean PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 78.2% |
| Liberal | 21.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.1% |
| Liberal | 32.8% |
| NDP | 21.7% |
| Other | 4.4% |
| Green | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 52.2% |
| Liberal | 26.9% |
| NDP | 12.4% |
| Other | 4.3% |
| Green | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Brampton Centre
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 97.2% |
| NDP | 2.7% |
| Liberal | 0.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 36.9% |
| NDP | 27.3% |
| Liberal | 22.5% |
| Other | 8.2% |
| Green | 5.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Brampton East
Tossup
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 57.7% |
| PC | 42.2% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 35.5% |
| PC | 34.6% |
| Liberal | 23.0% |
| Other | 4.6% |
| Green | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Brampton North
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 90.7% |
| Liberal | 5.9% |
| NDP | 3.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 35.5% |
| Liberal | 27.8% |
| NDP | 27.0% |
| Green | 5.7% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Brampton South
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.8% |
| Liberal | 0.2% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 39.3% |
| Liberal | 24.2% |
| NDP | 23.9% |
| Other | 6.4% |
| Green | 6.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Brampton West
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 98.4% |
| NDP | 1.4% |
| Liberal | 0.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 39.2% |
| NDP | 27.8% |
| Liberal | 24.6% |
| Green | 4.4% |
| Other | 3.9% |
Simulation outcomes
Burlington
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 90.4% |
| Liberal | 9.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.8% |
| Liberal | 30.7% |
| NDP | 19.7% |
| Green | 7.1% |
| Other | 4.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Durham
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.4% |
| NDP | 23.1% |
| Liberal | 22.3% |
| Green | 6.5% |
| Other | 1.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 42.0% |
| NDP | 24.3% |
| Liberal | 20.0% |
| Green | 7.3% |
| Other | 6.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton Centre
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 50.5% |
| PC | 16.6% |
| Liberal | 15.4% |
| Green | 10.3% |
| Other | 7.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Likely NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 94.6% |
| PC | 5.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 37.6% |
| PC | 28.8% |
| Liberal | 16.2% |
| Other | 10.2% |
| Green | 7.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton Mountain
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 97.4% |
| PC | 2.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 41.6% |
| PC | 30.0% |
| Liberal | 12.9% |
| Green | 9.1% |
| Other | 6.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Tossup
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 52.5% |
| PC | 39.8% |
| Liberal | 7.7% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 31.3% |
| PC | 30.6% |
| Liberal | 26.1% |
| Green | 6.9% |
| Other | 5.0% |
Simulation outcomes
King—Vaughan
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 52.2% |
| Liberal | 28.8% |
| NDP | 10.5% |
| Green | 5.3% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Markham—Stouffville
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 97.5% |
| Liberal | 2.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 44.2% |
| Liberal | 32.0% |
| NDP | 13.9% |
| Green | 6.2% |
| Other | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Markham—Thornhill
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.6% |
| Liberal | 0.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.2% |
| Liberal | 30.5% |
| NDP | 14.7% |
| Other | 4.0% |
| Green | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Markham—Unionville
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 59.5% |
| Liberal | 23.1% |
| NDP | 11.7% |
| Green | 3.4% |
| Other | 2.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Milton
Tossup
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 61.0% |
| Liberal | 39.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.9% |
| Liberal | 36.3% |
| NDP | 14.9% |
| Green | 7.7% |
| Other | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga Centre
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 88.3% |
| Liberal | 11.7% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.4% |
| Liberal | 31.0% |
| NDP | 18.6% |
| Other | 9.0% |
| Green | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Tossup
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 55.0% |
| Liberal | 45.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.1% |
| Liberal | 36.4% |
| NDP | 15.1% |
| Other | 6.1% |
| Green | 5.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 89.9% |
| Liberal | 10.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 38.6% |
| Liberal | 31.4% |
| NDP | 18.8% |
| Other | 6.9% |
| Green | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Lean Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 72.8% |
| PC | 27.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 42.0% |
| PC | 38.0% |
| NDP | 12.1% |
| Green | 4.5% |
| Other | 3.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Malton
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 98.2% |
| Liberal | 1.7% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 35.8% |
| Liberal | 25.5% |
| NDP | 22.1% |
| Other | 13.9% |
| Green | 2.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Mississauga—Streetsville
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 92.2% |
| Liberal | 7.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.5% |
| Liberal | 32.1% |
| NDP | 17.7% |
| Other | 5.4% |
| Green | 4.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Newmarket—Aurora
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.6% |
| Liberal | 0.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 44.3% |
| Liberal | 28.3% |
| NDP | 16.3% |
| Green | 5.6% |
| Other | 5.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Niagara Centre
Lean PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 82.3% |
| NDP | 17.7% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.6% |
| NDP | 32.6% |
| Liberal | 15.9% |
| Other | 7.6% |
| Green | 6.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Niagara Falls
Tossup
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 62.4% |
| PC | 37.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 39.8% |
| PC | 38.0% |
| Liberal | 13.4% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Niagara West
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 51.9% |
| NDP | 21.5% |
| Liberal | 13.9% |
| Green | 9.3% |
| Other | 3.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Oakville
Lean Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 71.1% |
| PC | 28.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 43.0% |
| PC | 39.4% |
| NDP | 11.0% |
| Green | 5.3% |
| Other | 1.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Oakville North—Burlington
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 98.7% |
| Liberal | 1.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 43.6% |
| Liberal | 30.7% |
| NDP | 16.9% |
| Green | 5.9% |
| Other | 2.9% |
Simulation outcomes
Oshawa
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 93.7% |
| NDP | 6.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 43.2% |
| NDP | 34.2% |
| Liberal | 11.0% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 5.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Pickering—Uxbridge
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.6% |
| Liberal | 0.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.7% |
| Liberal | 26.4% |
| NDP | 22.7% |
| Green | 6.5% |
| Other | 3.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Richmond Hill
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 97.3% |
| Liberal | 2.7% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.4% |
| Liberal | 34.6% |
| NDP | 11.8% |
| Green | 4.5% |
| Other | 1.8% |
Simulation outcomes
St. Catharines
Tossup
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 55.0% |
| Liberal | 42.1% |
| NDP | 3.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 32.4% |
| Liberal | 31.6% |
| NDP | 25.9% |
| Green | 6.0% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Thornhill
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 57.6% |
| Liberal | 18.7% |
| NDP | 13.4% |
| Other | 6.7% |
| Green | 3.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Lean PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 84.9% |
| Liberal | 15.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.0% |
| Liberal | 39.0% |
| NDP | 9.8% |
| Green | 3.5% |
| Other | 1.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Whitby
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.1% |
| NDP | 27.1% |
| Liberal | 17.4% |
| Green | 5.8% |
| Other | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Barrie—Innisfil
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.7% |
| NDP | 20.1% |
| Liberal | 16.0% |
| Green | 11.6% |
| Other | 4.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 41.3% |
| NDP | 19.2% |
| Green | 18.3% |
| Liberal | 16.8% |
| Other | 4.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 51.0% |
| NDP | 16.6% |
| Liberal | 15.4% |
| Green | 9.4% |
| Other | 7.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Dufferin—Caledon
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 48.1% |
| Green | 19.2% |
| Liberal | 15.1% |
| NDP | 13.6% |
| Other | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 54.6% |
| NDP | 18.8% |
| Liberal | 12.8% |
| Green | 7.3% |
| Other | 6.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 98.0% |
| Liberal | 2.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 42.1% |
| Liberal | 30.1% |
| NDP | 16.8% |
| Green | 7.1% |
| Other | 3.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Perth—Wellington
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.2% |
| NDP | 21.9% |
| Liberal | 14.1% |
| Green | 9.6% |
| Other | 5.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Peterborough—Kawartha
Lean PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 79.9% |
| Liberal | 20.0% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 36.6% |
| Liberal | 32.0% |
| NDP | 24.1% |
| Green | 5.5% |
| Other | 1.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Simcoe—Grey
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 53.2% |
| Liberal | 18.4% |
| NDP | 15.4% |
| Green | 11.1% |
| Other | 2.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Simcoe North
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 45.0% |
| Liberal | 22.7% |
| NDP | 19.8% |
| Green | 10.9% |
| Other | 1.6% |
Simulation outcomes
York—Simcoe
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 55.4% |
| Liberal | 17.6% |
| NDP | 16.7% |
| Green | 7.9% |
| Other | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Bay of Quinte
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.9% |
| NDP | 22.9% |
| Liberal | 19.5% |
| Green | 5.7% |
| Other | 4.9% |
Simulation outcomes
Carleton
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 47.4% |
| Liberal | 24.0% |
| NDP | 15.3% |
| Other | 7.1% |
| Green | 6.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Tossup
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 57.1% |
| PC | 42.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 37.8% |
| PC | 36.7% |
| NDP | 14.4% |
| Other | 6.6% |
| Green | 4.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.8% |
| NDP | 23.7% |
| Liberal | 15.5% |
| Green | 7.3% |
| Other | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Kanata—Carleton
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 38.9% |
| Liberal | 20.5% |
| NDP | 19.3% |
| Other | 13.3% |
| Green | 8.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Kingston and the Islands
Likely Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 88.5% |
| NDP | 10.7% |
| PC | 0.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 35.1% |
| NDP | 27.5% |
| PC | 24.9% |
| Green | 10.3% |
| Other | 2.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 50.7% |
| NDP | 21.9% |
| Liberal | 13.9% |
| Green | 7.9% |
| Other | 5.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 58.9% |
| Liberal | 17.2% |
| NDP | 14.0% |
| Green | 7.8% |
| Other | 2.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Nepean
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.9% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 42.8% |
| Liberal | 24.9% |
| NDP | 19.9% |
| Green | 8.3% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Orléans
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 99.2% |
| PC | 0.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 46.8% |
| PC | 31.7% |
| NDP | 14.5% |
| Green | 3.8% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa Centre
Likely Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 90.6% |
| NDP | 9.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 42.1% |
| NDP | 32.5% |
| PC | 15.5% |
| Green | 5.7% |
| Other | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa South
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 100.0% |
| PC | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 48.2% |
| PC | 26.7% |
| NDP | 18.2% |
| Green | 4.7% |
| Other | 2.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa—Vanier
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 50.7% |
| NDP | 19.3% |
| PC | 19.0% |
| Green | 6.1% |
| Other | 4.9% |
Simulation outcomes
Ottawa West—Nepean
Likely Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 85.9% |
| PC | 14.0% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 36.7% |
| PC | 30.8% |
| NDP | 22.4% |
| Green | 6.1% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 66.9% |
| Liberal | 12.7% |
| NDP | 11.9% |
| Green | 4.9% |
| Other | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 60.0% |
| Liberal | 16.2% |
| NDP | 15.5% |
| Green | 6.1% |
| Other | 2.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Algoma—Manitoulin
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 99.9% |
| PC | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 43.3% |
| PC | 24.7% |
| Other | 15.1% |
| Liberal | 11.0% |
| Green | 6.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Kenora—Rainy River
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.1% |
| NDP | 27.7% |
| Liberal | 14.3% |
| Green | 6.0% |
| Other | 2.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Nickel Belt
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 50.1% |
| PC | 23.7% |
| Liberal | 12.6% |
| Other | 8.0% |
| Green | 5.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Nipissing
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 50.3% |
| NDP | 27.3% |
| Liberal | 10.7% |
| Other | 6.8% |
| Green | 4.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 88.4% |
| Green | 11.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 42.8% |
| Green | 36.1% |
| NDP | 17.4% |
| Other | 3.7% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Sault Ste. Marie
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 98.8% |
| NDP | 1.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 41.2% |
| NDP | 29.3% |
| Liberal | 13.1% |
| Other | 11.0% |
| Green | 5.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Sudbury
Lean NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 79.9% |
| Liberal | 20.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 34.8% |
| Liberal | 29.5% |
| PC | 22.9% |
| Green | 6.9% |
| Other | 5.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 99.9% |
| NDP | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 44.7% |
| NDP | 24.8% |
| PC | 21.6% |
| Other | 4.6% |
| Green | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 100.0% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 48.6% |
| NDP | 25.0% |
| PC | 16.4% |
| Other | 5.6% |
| Green | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Timiskaming—Cochrane
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 46.2% |
| PC | 23.2% |
| Other | 13.5% |
| Liberal | 12.5% |
| Green | 4.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Timmins
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 98.2% |
| PC | 1.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 51.7% |
| PC | 36.5% |
| Other | 8.1% |
| Green | 3.6% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Kiiwetinoong
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 96.4% |
| PC | 3.5% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 37.1% |
| PC | 27.6% |
| Liberal | 20.6% |
| Green | 10.7% |
| Other | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Mushkegowuk—James Bay
Likely NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 92.7% |
| PC | 7.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 39.5% |
| PC | 31.2% |
| Liberal | 19.9% |
| Other | 6.3% |
| Green | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Brantford—Brant
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 98.8% |
| NDP | 1.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 41.7% |
| NDP | 29.8% |
| Liberal | 12.7% |
| Green | 7.9% |
| Other | 7.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Cambridge
Lean PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 74.8% |
| Liberal | 24.8% |
| NDP | 0.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 31.5% |
| Liberal | 28.3% |
| NDP | 21.8% |
| Green | 9.6% |
| Other | 8.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 60.1% |
| NDP | 30.4% |
| Green | 7.0% |
| Other | 2.5% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 56.0% |
| NDP | 23.8% |
| Liberal | 9.9% |
| Green | 6.6% |
| Other | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Essex
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 91.0% |
| NDP | 9.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 45.5% |
| NDP | 37.2% |
| Liberal | 7.9% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 3.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Guelph
Safe Green
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Green | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Green | 57.8% |
| PC | 16.7% |
| NDP | 12.1% |
| Liberal | 10.3% |
| Other | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Haldimand—Norfolk
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 55.1% |
| NDP | 19.1% |
| Liberal | 11.9% |
| Other | 7.1% |
| Green | 6.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Huron—Bruce
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 51.5% |
| NDP | 21.0% |
| Liberal | 18.4% |
| Green | 5.7% |
| Other | 3.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Kitchener Centre
Lean NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 72.9% |
| Liberal | 14.8% |
| PC | 12.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 30.8% |
| PC | 26.7% |
| Liberal | 25.9% |
| Green | 11.2% |
| Other | 5.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Kitchener—Conestoga
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 96.9% |
| NDP | 3.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 34.5% |
| NDP | 26.0% |
| Liberal | 17.6% |
| Other | 11.4% |
| Green | 10.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.0% |
| NDP | 1.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.6% |
| NDP | 26.4% |
| Liberal | 19.3% |
| Green | 12.3% |
| Other | 4.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 56.0% |
| NDP | 24.7% |
| Liberal | 8.5% |
| Green | 5.6% |
| Other | 5.1% |
Simulation outcomes
London—Fanshawe
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 97.4% |
| PC | 2.6% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 43.3% |
| PC | 31.7% |
| Liberal | 11.9% |
| Green | 8.1% |
| Other | 4.9% |
Simulation outcomes
London North Centre
Lean NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 78.3% |
| PC | 21.6% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 35.6% |
| PC | 31.5% |
| Liberal | 21.5% |
| Green | 7.9% |
| Other | 3.5% |
Simulation outcomes
London West
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 98.0% |
| PC | 2.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 42.8% |
| PC | 30.7% |
| Liberal | 14.0% |
| Green | 6.7% |
| Other | 5.8% |
Simulation outcomes
Oxford
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 54.6% |
| NDP | 22.0% |
| Liberal | 9.1% |
| Green | 7.2% |
| Other | 7.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Sarnia—Lambton
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 54.1% |
| NDP | 28.2% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Liberal | 6.1% |
| Other | 5.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Waterloo
Likely NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 85.0% |
| PC | 15.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 38.7% |
| PC | 32.8% |
| Liberal | 17.0% |
| Green | 8.5% |
| Other | 3.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Wellington—Halton Hills
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 51.4% |
| NDP | 16.9% |
| Liberal | 16.3% |
| Green | 13.9% |
| Other | 1.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Windsor—Tecumseh
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 99.6% |
| PC | 0.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 45.6% |
| PC | 28.9% |
| Liberal | 11.6% |
| Green | 8.0% |
| Other | 5.9% |
Simulation outcomes
Windsor West
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 96.2% |
| PC | 3.8% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 40.0% |
| PC | 29.8% |
| Liberal | 20.6% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 3.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Beaches—East York
Tossup
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 53.2% |
| NDP | 46.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 35.1% |
| NDP | 34.4% |
| PC | 18.0% |
| Green | 7.0% |
| Other | 5.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Davenport
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 99.7% |
| Liberal | 0.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 46.4% |
| Liberal | 26.2% |
| PC | 16.9% |
| Green | 6.3% |
| Other | 4.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Don Valley East
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 99.0% |
| PC | 1.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 44.3% |
| PC | 30.6% |
| NDP | 18.6% |
| Green | 3.9% |
| Other | 2.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Don Valley North
Lean PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 67.9% |
| Liberal | 32.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.9% |
| Liberal | 38.0% |
| NDP | 14.1% |
| Green | 4.0% |
| Other | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Don Valley West
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 96.7% |
| PC | 3.3% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 46.4% |
| PC | 34.5% |
| NDP | 12.4% |
| Green | 4.2% |
| Other | 2.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Eglinton—Lawrence
Likely Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 93.0% |
| PC | 7.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 46.2% |
| PC | 36.5% |
| NDP | 12.1% |
| Green | 3.7% |
| Other | 1.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Etobicoke Centre
Lean Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 66.8% |
| PC | 33.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 41.4% |
| PC | 38.5% |
| NDP | 12.0% |
| Other | 4.6% |
| Green | 3.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 85.3% |
| Liberal | 14.7% |
| NDP | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.0% |
| Liberal | 31.3% |
| NDP | 23.4% |
| Green | 5.9% |
| Other | 2.4% |
Simulation outcomes
Etobicoke North
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 100.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 50.7% |
| Liberal | 23.5% |
| NDP | 18.1% |
| Green | 4.6% |
| Other | 3.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Humber River—Black Creek
Likely Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 88.0% |
| PC | 8.1% |
| NDP | 4.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 35.4% |
| PC | 28.8% |
| NDP | 26.1% |
| Other | 7.3% |
| Green | 2.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Parkdale—High Park
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 99.9% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 46.0% |
| Liberal | 24.0% |
| PC | 19.0% |
| Green | 8.3% |
| Other | 2.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough—Agincourt
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 96.3% |
| Liberal | 3.7% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 45.9% |
| Liberal | 34.4% |
| NDP | 11.7% |
| Other | 5.4% |
| Green | 2.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough Centre
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 94.0% |
| Liberal | 5.8% |
| NDP | 0.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 36.0% |
| Liberal | 27.7% |
| NDP | 23.0% |
| Other | 9.7% |
| Green | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough—Guildwood
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 96.5% |
| PC | 3.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 39.8% |
| PC | 29.7% |
| NDP | 18.2% |
| Other | 8.6% |
| Green | 3.7% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough North
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.9% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 49.2% |
| Liberal | 28.4% |
| NDP | 17.3% |
| Green | 2.6% |
| Other | 2.5% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 97.0% |
| Liberal | 2.1% |
| NDP | 0.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 37.8% |
| Liberal | 27.4% |
| NDP | 26.1% |
| Other | 4.7% |
| Green | 4.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Scarborough Southwest
Lean NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 67.0% |
| PC | 30.0% |
| Liberal | 2.9% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 34.0% |
| PC | 31.6% |
| Liberal | 25.6% |
| Green | 4.6% |
| Other | 4.1% |
Simulation outcomes
Spadina—Fort York
Lean NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 76.9% |
| Liberal | 23.1% |
| PC | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 36.6% |
| Liberal | 31.8% |
| PC | 21.9% |
| Green | 6.2% |
| Other | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes
Toronto Centre
Lean NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 66.6% |
| Liberal | 33.4% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 39.2% |
| Liberal | 36.1% |
| PC | 14.1% |
| Other | 5.4% |
| Green | 5.2% |
Simulation outcomes
Toronto—Danforth
Safe NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 100.0% |
| Liberal | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 50.5% |
| Liberal | 20.2% |
| PC | 17.0% |
| Green | 8.0% |
| Other | 4.3% |
Simulation outcomes
Toronto—St. Paul’s
Safe Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 99.7% |
| NDP | 0.3% |
| PC | 0.0% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 42.1% |
| NDP | 25.0% |
| PC | 24.8% |
| Green | 5.1% |
| Other | 3.0% |
Simulation outcomes
University—Rosedale
Likely NDP
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| NDP | 85.5% |
| Liberal | 14.5% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| NDP | 36.0% |
| Liberal | 29.2% |
| PC | 20.9% |
| Green | 9.0% |
| Other | 5.0% |
Simulation outcomes
Willowdale
Likely PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 89.2% |
| Liberal | 10.8% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 40.8% |
| Liberal | 33.3% |
| NDP | 17.8% |
| Other | 4.4% |
| Green | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes
York Centre
Safe PC
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| PC | 99.9% |
| Liberal | 0.1% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| PC | 46.7% |
| Liberal | 26.7% |
| NDP | 16.0% |
| Other | 7.0% |
| Green | 3.6% |
Simulation outcomes
York South—Weston
Lean Liberal
| Party | Probability of winning |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 76.8% |
| PC | 22.0% |
| NDP | 1.2% |
| Party | Popular vote |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 36.3% |
| PC | 32.1% |
| NDP | 25.8% |
| Green | 4.2% |
| Other | 1.7% |
Simulation outcomes